Emerging markets drive machinery growth: EIMA 2024

The agricultural machinery market is shifting towards emerging regions like Southeast Asia and Africa, driven by population growth and increasing demand for advanced farming technologies in countries like Indonesia, Nigeria, and Ethiopia

In the coming years, while Europe and North America will remain dominant in the agricultural machinery sector, emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Africa are expected to play an increasingly important role. Countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand are already witnessing growth in machinery imports, driven by population expansion, which is also a key factor fueling demand in Africa, particularly in Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Although Europe and North America will continue to see significant investments to maintain high standards, the focus of growth will shift to Southeast Asia and Africa. While India and China will maintain their mechanisation levels, having achieved significant progress in recent years, it is the emerging markets that will drive growth. This forecast was shared during the EIMA International conference in Bologna, where industry experts discussed the evolving agricultural machinery market, which will run from November 6 to 10.

According to Mariateresa Maschio, president of FederUnacoma, the demand for agricultural machinery will grow substantially in regions with strong agricultural development, spurred by population growth and the need for more advanced equipment. A prominent example is Indonesia, which, with nearly 300 million people, is one of the most populous nations globally. Over the last 15 years, Indonesia's agricultural machinery imports have steadily increased from EUR 140 million (approx. US$160mn) in 2009 to nearly EUR 700 million (approx. US$770mn) in 2023, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 8.6%. This upward trend is expected to persist, with a projected annual growth rate of 6.7% from 2024 to 2027.

Other Southeast Asian countries are also experiencing rising machinery imports. In Vietnam, with a population of 100 million, imports are expected to grow by 6.2% annually over the next four years. The Philippines, with 110 million people, anticipates a 7.8% annual increase in imports, while Thailand, after a slow growth period of just 1% annually over the last 15 years, is forecasted to see a significant rise of 6.8% annually from 2024 to 2027.

In Africa, population growth is even more pronounced. Sub-Saharan Africa alone is projected to account for 50% of the world’s population increase by 2050. Nigeria, with 230 million people, is expected to become the third most populous country globally by mid-century, surpassing 400 million. Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, both with populations over 100 million, are also poised to experience rapid growth and join the ranks of the world’s top 10 most populous nations in the next two decades.

Currently, only 46% of Nigeria’s arable land is used for agriculture, while in the Democratic Republic of Congo, just 10% is utilised. Expanding agricultural land is a key priority for these countries, and as more land is cultivated, the demand for advanced agricultural technologies is expected to rise. In fact, machinery imports in Ethiopia are projected to grow by 7% annually until 2027, while Congo is forecasted to see an even higher increase of 12% per year, with continued growth over the next two decades.